{"id":6574,"date":"2021-10-15T13:36:35","date_gmt":"2021-10-15T18:36:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6574"},"modified":"2022-01-23T14:58:21","modified_gmt":"2022-01-23T20:58:21","slug":"the-stock-market-that-could-climbing-a-wall-of-worry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6574","title":{"rendered":"The Stock Market That Could &#8211; Climbing a Wall of Worry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Does the phrase \u201cclimbing a wall of worry\u201d sound familiar to you? In many years the stock market has continued to rise despite significant concerns in the economic or political environment. There are a lot of items causing investors to be concerned about current stock prices &#8211; inflation, shipping delays, Federal Reserve becoming less accommodative, political divisiveness, prolonged increase in stock prices and the threat of new strains of the COVID 19 virus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Some of these concerns have caused investors to be skiddish of late. One of Warren Buffet\u2019s famous quotes is, \u201cBe fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.\u201d When there is fear in the market it means that investors are being cautious and not pouring all of their available funds into stocks. This can decrease the threat of a major decline in market prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Barring a \u201cblack swan event,\u201d I think there are reasons to be optimistic. What is a \u201cblack swan event\u201d? It is an event that investors are not expecting. The 9\/11 attack was just such an event.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although we may see some increased volatility and possibly declining stock prices over the next three to six months, I believe there are many reasons to expect higher stock prices a year or two from now.&nbsp; A few of these include:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Increasing corporate earnings<\/strong>. Corporations are broadly seeing rising earnings as business returns following the COVID decline.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Low corporate debt. <\/strong>Nonfinancial corporate business debt as a percentage of market cap is the lowest it has been since 1945. <em>See accompanying chart from the Federal Reserve.<\/em><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"395\" data-attachment-id=\"6576\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?attachment_id=6576\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?fit=1168%2C450&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1168,450\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"fredgraph-2\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?fit=300%2C116&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?fit=1024%2C395&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?resize=1024%2C395&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6576\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?resize=1024%2C395&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?resize=300%2C116&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?resize=768%2C296&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?resize=1080%2C416&amp;ssl=1 1080w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/fredgraph-2.png?w=1168&amp;ssl=1 1168w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>TINA (There is No Alternative). <\/strong>Interest rates don\u2019t have much lower to go, which doesn\u2019t bode well for bond prices or bank savings. Commodities have risen and real estate is at high price levels. All of this leaves very little alternatives for investment than the stock market.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Cash Available on Sidelines<\/strong>. Significant cash seems to remain on the sidelines from nervous investors and those who have cashed in on other successful investments. As interest rates on savings accounts remain low and inflation starts to rise, there may not be much choice for savers other than to seek returns in the stock market.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Infrastructure Spending<\/strong>. The Federal Reserve may be looking to cut back funds flowing into the economy; however, the U.S. congress is on the verge of spilling trillions of dollars into the economy in the form of infrastructure spending.<\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Does the phrase \u201cclimbing a wall of worry\u201d sound familiar to you? In many years the stock market has continued to rise despite significant concerns in the economic or political environment. There are a lot of items causing investors to be concerned about current stock prices &#8211; inflation, shipping delays, Federal Reserve becoming less accommodative, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[119,1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6574","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-commentary","category-uncategorized"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7kXxe-1I2","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6551,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6551","url_meta":{"origin":6574,"position":0},"title":"Market Highs &#8211; Now What?","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"April 12, 2021","format":false,"excerpt":"Major stock market indices are hitting all-time high prices. There are many reasons for this continued rise in prices; some of the primary ones include: Economic recovery following the COVID related slowdown in 2020.Low interest rates drive more money toward stocks, as bonds, CDs and other income-producing assets do not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Financial Planning&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Financial Planning","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=122"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/Index-Performance-041221.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6891,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6891","url_meta":{"origin":6574,"position":1},"title":"Excuses, Excuses. \u00a0How Can I Possibly Invest Now?","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"July 10, 2025","format":false,"excerpt":"The Standard and Poor\u2019s 500 Index ended the second quarter of 2025 close to an all-time high. With stocks at high prices, conflict high in parts of the world and the U.S. political landscape polarized among families, neighbors and friends, it may seem like a difficult time to invest. Historically,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Commentary","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=119"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/image.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6194,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6194","url_meta":{"origin":6574,"position":2},"title":"Market Update 1Q 2018 &#8211; Uncertainty and Change","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"April 6, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"In the last newsletter I stated that \u201cchange may be afoot.\u201d The first quarter was certainly driven by change. The Standard and Poor\u2019s 500 Index, an index of the 500 largest United States public stocks, fell 0.8% for the quarter\uf0bethe first negative quarter since second quarter 2015. In 2015, first\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Commentary","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=119"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6687,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6687","url_meta":{"origin":6574,"position":3},"title":"International Stocks Turn To Shine","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"April 10, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"It may not feel like it, but stocks have made a strong comeback since the end of the third quarter of 2022. Despite issues with Silicon Valley Bank and other news items that have roiled the front pages the past couple months, stocks continued to recover nicely from the drop\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Commentary","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=119"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/04\/image-3.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6218,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6218","url_meta":{"origin":6574,"position":4},"title":"Market Update.  Divergence from Diversification?","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"October 9, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Whether you are in the investment industry or not, one of the first lessons everyone learns is the importance of diversification. \u201cDon\u2019t put all your eggs in one basket,\u201d so to speak. Over time we have learned that diversification works. Stocks that are not alike will not perform alike, so\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Financial Planning&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Financial Planning","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=122"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":6513,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6513","url_meta":{"origin":6574,"position":5},"title":"The Market&#8217;s Crystal Ball","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"April 3, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"I hope this newsletter finds you well. It is amazing how the world can change in just a few months. The recent environment helps us remember what is most important in life\u2014family, friends and health. A big thank you to my clients! It is a privilege to help you navigate\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Commentary","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=119"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/image-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6574"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6577,"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6574\/revisions\/6577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6574"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6574"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6574"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}