{"id":6749,"date":"2024-04-03T11:04:29","date_gmt":"2024-04-03T16:04:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6749"},"modified":"2024-04-03T11:04:47","modified_gmt":"2024-04-03T16:04:47","slug":"what-configuration-of-government-is-best-for-the-economy-and-markets-data-from-j-p-morgan-asset-management-as-of-february-29-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6749","title":{"rendered":"What Configuration of Government is Best For the Economy and Markets? Data from J.P. Morgan Asset Management as of February 29, 2024<\/em><\/strong>"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Looking at returns during different government configurations tells investors little about why markets or the economy performed the way they did, and give little indication of how this could play out in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The charts below highlight real GDP growth and S&P 500 returns during Republican (red), Democratic (blue) and divided governments (when one party does not control the White House and both chambers of Congress). Since 1947, real GDP has grown on average 2.8% under Republican rule and 4.0% under Democratic rule. The S&P 500 has returned 12.9% under Republicans and 9.3% under Democrats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It would be easy to conclude that the economy performs better under Democrats and the market performs better under Republicans, but the sample sizes are relatively small. Republicans have controlled the government only 11% of the time since World War II–in the mid-1950s, early 2000s and just before the pandemic. These were significantly disparate macro environments. Democrats have controlled the government 29% of the time, mostly in the post-WWII period and in the 1960s, but only in six years over the past three decades. Instead, the most common configuration of government is divided, which has produced 2.7% annualized real GDP growth since World War II and 8.3% annualized returns on the S&P 500. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ultimately, both the economy and markets tend to fare well under most government configurations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Source: BEA, Standard & Poor\u2019s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is calendar year. Guide to the Markets \u2013 U.S. Data are as of February 29, 2024.<\/em>
<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Looking at returns during different government configurations tells investors little about why markets or the economy performed the way they did, and give little indication of how this could play out in the future. The charts below highlight real GDP growth and S&P 500 returns during Republican (red), Democratic (blue) and divided governments (when one […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[119,106],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6749","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-commentary","category-news"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7kXxe-1KR","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6611,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6611","url_meta":{"origin":6749,"position":0},"title":"Market Forces. 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