{"id":6928,"date":"2026-04-06T12:55:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:55:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6928"},"modified":"2026-04-06T12:55:18","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T17:55:18","slug":"fear-and-uncertainty-will-this-become-the-new-norm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6928","title":{"rendered":"Fear and Uncertainty. Will This Become the New Norm?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Almost one year ago to the day of the market high in February 2026, the market began a decline and volatility prompted by \u201cLiberation Day.\u201d &nbsp;The Wall Street Journal reported on April 2, 2026, that a year ago \u201cstocks came within a whisker of a new bear market, Treasury yields spiked and the VIX \u201cfear gauge\u201d reached a level not seen since the Covid-19 panic\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One year ago in this newsletter I wrote an article about how we can best handle uncertainty. Focus on these three items:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>What can we control?<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Distract \u00a0ourselves from negative thoughts.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Reach out to others.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Undoubtedly, investors who were able to obtain this focus have come out stronger than before. In fact, the stock market rewarded us with another year of strong market returns. It seems this market condition applies again this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"677\" height=\"350\" data-attachment-id=\"6929\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?attachment_id=6929\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-1.png?fit=677%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"677,350\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-1.png?fit=300%2C155&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-1.png?fit=677%2C350&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-1.png?resize=677%2C350&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6929\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-1.png 677w, https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-1-480x248.png 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 677px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Fear and uncertainty do not always translate into poor market returns. In fact, the Consumer Sentiment Index shows us that low consumer confidence and fear have historically resulted in greater market performance in the subsequent 12-month period than peak moments of positive consumer sentiment. The following chart shows that of the 10 sentiment <strong><em>peaks <\/em><\/strong>since 1971, the average 12 month return of the Standard &amp; Poor\u2019s 500 Index (S&amp;P 500) was 4.8%. Conversely, the subsequent 12 month return of the S&amp;P 500 following 9 sentiment <strong><em>troughs<\/em><\/strong> averaged 24.1%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"849\" height=\"579\" data-attachment-id=\"6930\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?attachment_id=6930\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image.jpg?fit=849%2C579&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"849,579\" data-comments-opened=\"0\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image.jpg?fit=300%2C205&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image.jpg?fit=849%2C579&amp;ssl=1\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image.jpg?resize=849%2C579&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-6930\" srcset=\"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image.jpg 849w, https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-480x327.jpg 480w\" sizes=\"(min-width: 0px) and (max-width: 480px) 480px, (min-width: 481px) 849px, 100vw\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Do not let emotions drive investment decisions. We work together to put together a solid plan for your financial future. Fear and uncertainty will always be a fact of life. How we react to it is what marks success.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Almost one year ago to the day of the market high in February 2026, the market began a decline and volatility prompted by \u201cLiberation Day.\u201d &nbsp;The Wall Street Journal reported on April 2, 2026, that a year ago \u201cstocks came within a whisker of a new bear market, Treasury yields spiked and the VIX \u201cfear [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"off","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[119,123],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6928","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-market-commentary","category-market-performance"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p7kXxe-1NK","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":6932,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6932","url_meta":{"origin":6928,"position":0},"title":"U.S. vs International\/U.S Sectors","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"April 6, 2026","format":false,"excerpt":"Performance Source: Koyfin.com Price Return U.S. Versus International The S&P 500 Index, an index of large U.S. companies, posted a price return of -4.6% for the first quarter of 2026. Large U.S. stocks underperformed international for the quarter as measured by the iShares MSCI ACWI ex-US Index, a representation of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Commentary","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=119"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-2.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/image-2.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x"},"classes":[]},{"id":6028,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6028","url_meta":{"origin":6928,"position":1},"title":"3rd Quarter 2016 Market Update \u2013 Calm Before the Storm?","author":"J.J. Schenkelberg, CFA","date":"November 30, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":" Third quarter performance of the general equity market was marked by calm markets followed by Federal Reserve driven\u2010volatility. Prior to the Federal Reserve beige book report in September, equity markets were quite calm, as measured by the CBOE VIX index (Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Market Commentary&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Market Commentary","link":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?cat=119"},"img":{"alt_text":"screen-shot-2016-11-30-at-12-21-46-pm","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/schenkelberg.investments\/wp-content\/uploads\/2016\/11\/Screen-Shot-2016-11-30-at-12.21.46-PM-300x136.png?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":6194,"url":"https:\/\/schenkelberg.investments\/?p=6194","url_meta":{"origin":6928,"position":2},"title":"Market Update 1Q 2018 &#8211; Uncertainty and Change","author":"J.J. 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