U.S. Versus International
The S&P 500, an index of large U.S. companies, posted a total return of 4.5% for the 13 weeks ending September 30, 2017. U.S. stocks lagged behind international for the quarter as measured by the All Country World Index ex-U.S. stocks, a representation of international stocks outside the U.S. Total return for the 13 weeks ending September 30, 2017, was 5.6%.
The MSCI Latin America index generated a price return of 14.6% for the 13 weeks ending September 30, 2017. Economic recovery in the region strengthened substantially in the second quarter. Regional GDP expanded 1.1% annually, the best result in three years. Strong energy performance in the quarter also helped to prop up Latin American stocks, which are led by Petrobras Brazil.
The U.S. dollar continued to fall against major international currencies in the third quarter. A falling U.S. dollar is positive for foreign stocks purchased in U.S. dollars.
U.S. Sectors
Top performing U.S. sectors for 13 weeks ending September 30, 2017, by total return included Technology (+8.0%), Energy (+7.2%) and Financial Services (+6.0%). Laggards for the 13-weeks include Consumer Defensives (-1.0%), Real Estate (0.7%) and Consumer Cyclical (1.3%). The “risk-on” trade, characterized by growth-oriented investments versus defensive sectors, was strong in the third quarter as confidence of U.S. economic recovery strengthened.
Energy stocks staged a strong turnaround in the third quarter. Hurricane activity spurred higher energy prices, which offset potential operational concerns as plants were shut down during the storm. Technology stocks continued their strong 2017 run amidst the launch of the new Apple iPhone 8.
Consumer stocks struggled in the third quarter. Toys ‘R Us announced bankruptcy, sending toy maker stocks reeling. The toy store does not intend to close retail stores. However, the company needs help to rebuild its operations. This event again brought to light the potential shift toward on-line retailers from brick and mortar. Similar to the shift from hard copy newspapers and magazines to on-line media, it will take time to see how the numbers level out.