U.S. Versus International
The S&P 500, an index of large U.S. companies, posted a total return of 7.7% for the 13 weeks ending September 30, 2018. U.S. stocks outperformed international for the quarter as measured by the All Country World Index ex-U.S. stocks, a representation of international stocks outside the U.S. Total return for the 13 weeks ending September 30, 2018, was -1.5%.
Threats of a tariff war between China and the U.S. continued to wreak havoc on international versus U.S. investments. International investments experienced a double whammy as the perception of slower economic growth and falling currency values hit stocks. The dominance of the U.S. in tariff discussions, along with rising U.S. interest rates, drove a continued increase in the value of the U.S. dollar. The value of international investments originally purchased in U.S. dollars shrinks as the value of the dollar strengthens.
Japanese stocks outpaced other international markets, but still lagged the U.S. S&P 500 Index. The MSCI Japan index increased 5.5% for the 13 weeks ending September 30, 2018. Schinzo Abe, prime minister of Japan, instituted significant economic reforms when he took office in 2012. These adjustments have helped drive an economic recovery in Japanese stocks that has translated into ongoing corporate earnings strength.
U.S. Sectors
Top performing U.S. sectors for 13 weeks ending September 30, 2018, by total return included Healthcare (+13.9%), Industrials (+9.9%) and Technology (+9.3%). Laggards for the 13 weeks include Basic Materials (-1.2%), Energy (0.7%) and Real Estate (0.8%). Investor focus turned back to innovative opportunities and shied away from stocks that could be negatively impacted by rising interest rates.
Cannabis stocks broke out last quarter, fueled by announcements from Constellation Brands and Coca-Cola regarding their interest in using cannabis ingredients in the future. Health care stocks likely gained from this interest as well, as optimism surrounding growth of cannabis-based health care products increased.
Late September, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates to a range of 2 and 2.25 percent. Indications are that more increases are coming over the next couple years. Chairman Jerome Powell commented that the economy is experiencing “a particularly bright moment.”