U.S. Versus International

The S&P 500, an index of large U.S. companies, posted a total return of 1.2% for the Third Quarter of 2019. U.S. stocks outperformed international for the quarter as measured by the Morgan Stanley Composite Index EAFE, a representation of international stocks outside the U.S. Total return for the Third Quarter of 2019 was -1.1%.

International stocks fell harder than U.S. equities during the month of July in anticipation of additional tariffs between the U.S. and China. As trade talks softened throughout the quarter international stocks traded more in line with U.S. securities. The global economy continues to show signs of slowdown, which may affect the U.S.

Japanese and European stocks were a global bright spot, outperforming the U.S. European leaders remain committed to an accommodative fiscal policy, with interest rates set below zero. Hong Kong and China were the weakest global areas, with the Hong Kong stock index falling over 10%. While tariff news weighed on Chinese stocks, ongoing protests in Hong Kong are weighing on their economy. The Hong Kong cry of freedom will likely continue to put pressure on Chinese resources.

 

U.S. Sectors

Top performing U.S. sectors as reported by The Wall Street Journal for the third quarter of 2019 by total return included Utilities (8.4%), Real Estate (6.9%) and Consumer Staples (5.4%). Laggards for the third quarter include Energy (-7.3%), Healthcare (-2.7%) and Materials (-0.7%). Relative sector performance was primarily influenced by two interest rate cuts at the Federal Reserve during the quarter.

Utility and real estate stocks are often coveted for their high dividend yields. When interest rates decline these securities become relatively more attractive for investors seeking consistent income from their investments. Lower interest rates mean lower income on bonds and other interest rate related investments. The high dividends on utility and real estate stocks can make up for lost income in other areas.

Also notable is the strong shift from more cyclical sectors, like materials and energy, that may be negatively impacted by slower economic growth into more defensive sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples. The Federal Reserve rate cut indicates significant concern regarding future growth opportunities indicating that economic growth may be muted.