Have you ever heard the phrase “markets don’t like uncertainty”? If not, welcome to the current market environment. So many areas of our lives are marked by uncertainty and right now our nation is in a collective state of uncertainty: tariffs, government efficiency job cuts, ongoing international conflict. How is all of this going to affect our lives? Is it going to affect our lives?
An article in Psychology Today by Catherine A. Sanderson Ph.D. published September 21, 2021 states that when faced with ongoing uncertainty our bodies stay at a high level of physiological arousal, exerting considerable wear and tear. Interestingly, empirical research shows that people who have a 50% chance of receiving an electric shock feel more stress than people who have a 100% chance of receiving a shock. Furthermore, people who report persistent concern about losing their jobs experience worse health and higher rates of depression than people who get fired.
How do we manage uncertainty? Sanderson says, “We can manage uncertainty by figuring out what we can control, distracting ourselves from negative thoughts, and reaching out to others.” Unfortunately, uncertainty may be around for much of 2025. That doesn’t mean we need to flee investments. With uncertainty comes volatility, which can be uncomfortable but can also breed opportunity. And, in the end, we will find relief from the persistent concern.
What can we control?
We can control whether our near-term cash needs are in safer assets if we are in a non-income producing stage of life, such as retirement. If we are in an accumulation phase of life and have extra cash outside of the market, we can start taking advantage of lower prices and invest some of that cash while making sure to keep some aside as we navigate the ongoing volatility.
Financial planning involves recognizing when and how much of your funds will be needed to meet your living expenses. When working with clients the first priority is an emergency fund. Is there enough cash in safe, non-volatile investments for your immediate needs or those potential needs if income sources were to disappear? Any funds that you may need to live for the next year should be in cash or very conservative investments. Or, there should be adequate funds that if we experience volatility they can be accessed without sacrificing long-term needs.
Many investors are not looking to touch their investment funds for a minimum of five years. For these investors it is important to recognize historical return patterns and recognize how time is on your side. As time in the market increases, the possibility of losing money decreases along with volatility. On a 10-year rolling average stocks have returned 11.6% on average per year.
Distracting ourselves from negative thoughts
This article is being written following the market close on April 3, 2025. The Wall Street Journal headline states, “Stocks Suffer Biggest One-Day Wipeout in Value Since March 2020.” How do we stay positive in the face of these negative headlines?
Let’s not forget how good we have had it the past couple of years. The S&P 500 Index increased 23.31% in 2024 and in 2023 the S&P 500 Index increased 24.23%. Even with the worst day since March 2020 the S&P 500 Index is down 8.25% year-to-date, and many diversified portfolios are down less than that with international stocks performing quite well relative to the U.S. based S&P 500 so far in 2025. Believe it or not, international stocks are up 4.75% year-to-date, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index ex-U.S. ETF.
Following the close on April 3, 2025, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 Indices remain higher than they were one year ago.
Versus two years ago, today the S&P 500 Index is up 31.32% and the NASDAQ 100 Index is up 40.51%. Investments are a lot better off than they were two years ago!
Reaching out to others
If you are concerned with where you are, or if you have additional money to put to work at lower prices, please don’t hesitate to reach out. As we continue to navigate these volatile times we are here to help walk through it.
One way or another uncertainty will end and our constant state of stress will lessen. Remember that immensely stressful time during COVID that we all walked through together? Seems like a long time ago now. Live in the present, look for ways to help others and be thankful for all the little moments of light in our day.
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